Why We’re Moving From Status Updates to Q&A

Within the past few weeks, Quora went public in June, Ask.com reverted to its Q&A roots, and Facebook Questions were formally introduced.ask-logo

Why this sudden trend and momentum towards Questions and Answers?

First, Status Updates are passé. The social web needs to move beyond.

Second, Check-ins were an evolution of the status update, but they lack mainstream appeal, have privacy related issues, and are limited in scope (you have to move to check-in to a different location).

Third, Q&As are more attractive to both users and businesses:

  • Q&As vastly increase the actual usefulness of a social site by several orders of magnitude. This is the obvious, perceived benefit for users.
  • Meaningful questions reveal more about a person than mindless status updates. This leads to better profile information than what people may or may not reveal in their profiles.
  • Questions reveal Intent. Advertisers are more likely to target “Which are the best places to travel to Goa?” (Question) than “Wish I could spend the New Year in Goa!” (Status Update).
  • Questions have a much greater possibility of eliciting responses, leading to greater interaction, translated as more time spent using the site/service.
  • Answers reveal more information about a person’s expertise and interest than what people may or may not reveal in their profile.

Update: To illustrate the last point further, let’s say you answer the question “What’s the best telescope to buy at home?” and it gets voted up. Bingo! Now, even if you don’t have Astronomy listed as a hobby or interest, Facebook knows you’re an Astronomy enthusiast. Also remember, all this information is public and search engines would be glad to get their hands on it. Imagine Blekko with a slashtag search of all Q&A sites – it would be a gold mine for marketers.

What’s next? I wouldn’t be surprised if check-ins and Q&A were tied together. Answers from a person geographically closer may be of higher relevance for certain type of questions. You can add special Badges for the most answered questions about a location, and you get the next version of “Mayor” in FourSquare.

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Predicting Tech News in 2015

Last month, Stuart Miles, founder of the gadget and tech blog Pocket-Lint, asked me to contribute to its feature on “FutureWeek”:

What gadgets will we be using in 2015, where will Augmented Reality take us? What about robots, gadgets of the future, super-fast internet speeds, cars, materials of 2015 and much, much more.

The entire set of stories make excellent reading with insights from thought-leaders around the web. Apart from gadgets, there are other posts on what to expect from the semantic web and how we will consume content in 2015. Being in the technology news business, my thoughts were included in What will be the big tech stories in 2015.

I would like to elaborate on my thoughts here. I must say that these ‘predictions’ are nothing but a reflection of my hopes as well as fears. Further, I sent these on 21st March, after which there have been some interesting developments.

Facebook will not become AOL 2.0. To remain competitive, it will be forced to interoperate with other networks.

There has been discussion on this issue time and again on the web. I personally think the web is resilient to any attempts to dominate it in the long term. I also think the team working at Facebook is wise to learn from the past.

Social Networks will no longer be "places" on the web. Instead, your "social graph" will follow you on the web.

  1. You will control your social graph – choose and add from among different networks – Facebook, Twitter, Google, Windows Live – which will all be interoperable using an open standard. This evolution of social networking will be similar to that of Instant Messaging, where the open XMPP standard became popular, achieving interoperability to an extent.
  2. Rather than social networks wanting you to visit and spend time on their site, they will compete to become an inseparable part of the time you spend online, whether mobile or desktop.
  3. The social graph that follows you will help personalize and customize your browsing experience for everything:
  • Primary Content on websites – for example, which headlines/articles you see
  • Ads – tailored to your social identity and graph
  • Search Results
  • Which friends of yours are online, shown within your browser
  • Reactions/comments from your friends optionally shown for the web page you’re visiting

All the above is pretty self-explanatory. We are already seeing glimpses of this in Facebook chat, Google Sidewiki, and so on. Interestingly, one week after I sent these, there were reports of Facebook planning a “Like” button for any content anywhere on the web, and launching a Meebo-style persistent toolbar. Imagine my reaction when I saw these developments! :)

Websites will personalize according to your social graph using mechanisms like Facebook Connect, Google Friend Connect, Twitter Following/Followers graph, etc.

This is an ongoing trend I see towards a personalized relevant web. Again, a week afterwards, there were reports of Facebook sharing your profile data with external sites, so that these sites will tailor content for you.

I had also pointed out Facebook Connect being a mechanism for precisely this goal, when I wrote in January about Facebook’s non-portable data-portability. Marshall Kirkpatrick now points it out as well: there’s a big difference between opt-in and opt-out “data portability”.

Anti-trust legislation will be a major threat to Google’s dominance both in US and EU. "Will Google split up?" will be a question discussed in the media.

This is speculation. Google’s expansion into virtually every aspect of technology have already brought it under the scrutiny of anti-trust authorities.

Apple’s mindshare will start to decline. As Steve Jobs approaches retirement, questions will be asked of Apple’s survival.

Two weeks after I sent this, the question of what happens after the iPad and after Steve Jobs has been asked. I have my doubts about Apple’s innovation and competitive capabilities in a post-Jobs era, but would be happy if they’re proved wrong.

Privacy and Anti-Piracy will continue to make headlines.

  1. On Privacy: We would move to a public-by-default, private by opt-in model.
  2. On Anti-Piracy: Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) will be in place, along with a global version of the DMCA.

These are my fears and they are very real. ACTA negotiations are making progress, and includes a global version of the DMCA. The politicians behind these negotiations may not understand technology and the people who understand the technology are busy writing about other topics that get their blogs more traffic. It’s also a case of those who matter, don’t understand; those who understand, don’t matter.

Do read the other pieces in FutureWeek. And thanks to Stuart for the opportunity to share my thoughts!

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The Evolution from Numbers to Relevance

Social media and Businesses on the web today are driven by the numbers game – of traffic, page views, and follower numbers. But the trend I foresee is:

The web is evolving from a numbers model to a relevance model.

Paradigm Shift: What is the Relevance Model?

Historically, monetization driven by CPC/CPM based advertising has led to websites and marketers focusing on page views and traffic. This is partly the cause of social media being spammed by internet marketers, ranking algorithms being gamed for traffic, and so on.

Numbers Model

Relevance Model

# of Followers Context-driven Lists
# of Clicks # of Interactions
# of Page Views # of Returning Visitors
# of Ads Displayed Time spent on site
# of Ads Clicked # of Subscriptions Gained
Obnoxious Ads Relevant Ads
Influence Management Dynamic Social Graph
Sharing Orgy & Noise Curation
Information Overload Filtered, Relevant Information
Traffic Economy Attention Economy
SEO and SMO Personalization

 

The above table lists different attributes of this paradigm shift. The “Influence Management” entry links to a post by Mia Dand who describes how leveraging social media is often about using a handful of influencers (read: with large follower numbers) to spread your message. Contrast that with Dynamic Social Graphs as described by Robert Scoble, where influence is dynamically determined based on relevance and not just numbers.

The Facebook Kingdom was built on Relevance

The king of the social web, Facebook, was not built on numbers, but relevance.

The success of Facebook and why it has garnered over 400 million users is because it grew on a base of real-life friends who were relevant in the users’ social circle. Other networks have failed to challenge Facebook partly because they have tried to go the other way around – from numbers to relevance.Bullseye

Prioritizing numbers over relevance is putting the cart in front of the horse.

Even as its explosive growth continues unabated, Facebook has not compromised on relevance. It knows that its success depends on users finding relevant content on Facebook and is willing to sacrifice advertising revenue to avoid becoming irrelevant.

I’ve touched upon various aspects of this ongoing theme while tracking the Google vs. Facebook race towards a relevant real-time. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that relevance wins over real-time.

While Facebook has never been in the numbers game, other networks like Digg are now moving from the numbers model to the relevance model.

Relevance vs. Real-Time in Location Check-ins

Consider the hottest trend of check-ins via location services, such as Foursquare or Gowalla.

When I check-in at a restaurant, the real-time checkins of my friends in other places is irrelevant. What is more important and relevant to me is the tips from my friends who have checked-in at the same place as I am right now.

In all cases, my friends are relevant in real-time only if they are at the same location as me. My other friends NOT at the same location become irrelevant.

Relevance wins over real-time.

The Mobile View

While mobile internet access grows, the screen of mobile devices remains constrained by its form factor. This is a major factor driving this evolution. If the content on your screen is constrained by its display, it had better be relevant.

Lifestreaming and Aggregation

As I discussed extensively in my post on why Google Buzz should not simply be yet-another-aggregator, lifestreaming and aggregation have failed to take off and gain mainstream adoption. The reason is simple – lack of relevance.

Which is why, it is personally heartening to see the champions of lifestreaming and aggregation turn their focus towards relevance and disaggregation.

Startups focusing on Relevance

Quite a few startups are hoping to capitalize on this trend:

  • my6sense – recently introduced an ‘Attention API’ allowing publishers to deliver relevant content to users
  • Cadmus – auto-filters Twitter/RSS streams by relevance
  • Knowmore – surfaces relevant stuff from Twitter/Facebook
  • TwitterTimes – personalized aggregation from Twitter
  • FeedTrace – personalized aggregation from Twitter
  • VictusMedia – ‘Intelligent Media Manager’
  • MixPanel – tracking what I’ll term “Relevance Analytics” for publishers
  • Cascaad – personalized news stream based on social graph from Twitter/Facebook

From Around the Web

Here are related posts that further elaborate on this evolution:

Role of Curation in the Attention Economy

Chris Brogan wrote about Attention as a Currency about a month back in the backdrop of how he never liked FriendFeed and how Google Buzz is noisy. While Brogan focused on how one should focus on budgeting one’s own attention, I want to take the concept forward in the context of social media sharing.

Attention as Currency

Key points from Brogan’s post:

  • Attention is the baseline currency and it is finite
  • Reputation and Trust are higher-level instruments of the baseline attention currency
  • You should set up an Attention Budget
  • You should not get sucked into Buzz/Twitter/Facebook

(It is heartening to see a social media celebrity cautioning against getting sucked into the most popular social media tools out there, but how many social media enthusiasts are paying attention?)

The ‘You Scratch My Back & I’ll Scratch Yours’ Formula

When I once thanked an online friend for sharing one of my posts, the response took me by surprise: “It’s alright. You’ve shared some of my stuff before”.

Yes, I was a newcomer to social media.

Social Media today is largely driven by numbers and continues to play the followers game. An entire crop of millions of social media marketers has been harvested using the “You scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours” fertilizer. What this means is, if you share my post, I’ll share yours. The principle is that you need to give in order to get in return. All this ‘give and take’ is partly what has caused the noise in social media.

Because of this formula, the situation has now devolved to:

  • Digging stories blindly just because your friend ‘subbed’ them on Digg
  • Retweeting those who retweet you, irrespective of what is being tweeted
  • And so on, in various other networks in various other forms

Essentially, social media networks have become places where sharing is more about sucking up to people and their social circle, rather than truly endorsing content. And as networks, social circles and sharing grows on the one hand, quality of content being shared deteriorates more and more on the other.

Sharing is Asking for Attention

When you share something on any network, you are telling your social circle – “Look at this, this is something I think you will find interesting.” In essence, you are asking for attention from your followers. Your followers distribute whatever attention currency they have budgeted for you among the things you share.

The attention each item receives depends on the total number of items you share. If you overdo it, you are reducing the value of each shared item. If you don’t share much, you aren’t really participating in the social network, reducing your baseline value.

The Flaw in the Formula

What the formula doesn’t take into account is that by blindly and indiscriminately increasing one’s ‘give and take’ in social media, one is decreasing the relevance of one’s shares to one’s followers. By ‘giving back’ to certain people, you’re at the same time ‘taking away’ from your other followers.

When the relevancy of your shares decrease, your reputation and trust declines. Social media tools might indicate you have a large number of followers, your ‘influence’ is ranked highly in terms of numbers, and you become popular as a friendly person. But your followers may not be clicking on the links you tweet or buying the products or services you recommend.

Curation Increases Reputation

Curation is such a buzzword these days, that some have gone so far as to dub every act of social media sharing as ‘curation’ – from Foursquare check-ins to Blippy purchases, to Yelp reviews. I consider some of these examples as annotations or adding meta data to a crowdsourced database. Considering each act of social media sharing as an act of curation is like considering all sex to be an act of love.

The one way I’ve seen true reputation and influence increase on the social web is when one’s shares are relevant to followers. This necessitates a brutal and ruthless evaluation. Is this content relevant to my followers? Irrespective of which influencer wrote it, irrespective of which ‘guru’ endorsed it, the relevance question is of prime consideration in deciding whether I endorse, share and propagate it to my followers.

Curation is budgeting the attention of your followers.

By reviewing the content and evaluating its relevance to your followers in any network, you are valuing the attention of your network. Personally, I prefer valuing this currency of my followers than playing the numbers game.

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Google Buzz + Reader + Twitter + Facebook = Noise

I’m having a hard time deciding whom to follow on which network with duplicate shares everywhere. The problem is compounded further by folks who auto-share from one network to another. There is no value in following people who share the same thing on Reader, Buzz, Twitter, Facebook, and so on. Duplication simply amplifies noise and reduces signal.

This is a real problem with social media today. Everyone wants maximum likes, shares, retweets on each and every thing they share. Their hope, understandably, is that each morsel they throw into social media becomes a feast on which everyone will drool.

Well, count me out. If someone is auto-feeding the same thing on all networks, it doesn’t add any value to me to follow them on all networks. Especially if they are not engaging in conversation where their content is landing.

I have written before about why I do not use auto-tweeting tools like Reader2Twitter, because I take as much effort as possible to attribute my sources. If you are using such tools, it makes sense to auto-tweet to a different Twitter account, like some folks do. This gives your followers the choice whether to follow you on Reader or Twitter.

Enter Buzz and FriendFeed and Facebook. Each of these is capable of pulling items from multiple sources for each person. FriendFeed can further be imported into Facebook and Buzz. This is not just aggregation, it is super-aggregation or aggregation-squared. This amplifies signals to such enormous proportions that all this noise is deafening.

Each of my shares on Twitter, Reader, and Facebook are hand-picked and manual. It takes extra effort but I believe it adds value to those who follow me. I am happy not being a social media superstar with thousands of followers if even a single person likes a single share of mine in a day. My value is not in the number of retweets, number of likes, etc., but in the feedback I get from even a single @reply or comment.

Neither of the companies behind each of these social networks are working with each other to design better filters for all of us. Each simply wants us to use them exclusively. There lies the problem. We hop on to each new social network bandwagon, immediately discover tools that allow us to auto-share and auto-propagate our shared content down stream, up stream, cross stream, life stream, etc., ultimately drowning our followers in the flood.

I am skeptic this problem will go away soon. As a curator, this is a challenge. The only way I see to successfully filter the signal out of this noise is to be brutal in curating sources. Auto-sharers, auto-tweeters, auto-feeders, or whatever these tools are called, will be the first on my radar as likely candidates to be unfollowed.

As a follower, I am a human. When you auto-share, you’re not a human on that network, you turn into a bot. Bots are what we call spam.

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